Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat related deaths over the next six months as El Niño intensifies, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The report projects 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region, with Nigeria accounting for nearly half.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have warned that an unusually powerful El Niño could worsen extreme heat, drought and flooding in vulnerable regions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could peak towards the end of 2026, disrupting temperatures and rainfall patterns globally. She urged governments to use forecasts and early warning systems to protect at risk communities.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that about 50 million people could face increased hunger as the crisis worsens food insecurity. He cited the African Development Bank’s estimate that the crisis could cost African countries $10 billion to $20 billion and cut GDP by one to two percent.
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat related deaths during El Niño’s first nine months, from June to February, with countries in the Global South bearing the brunt.
In Nigeria, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) recently recorded 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State and 34°C in Lagos.
Experts say prolonged extreme heat could increase heat related illnesses and put pressure on water, electricity and farming activities.
The report recommends early warning systems, cooling centres and protection for outdoor workers to reduce deaths.
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